ZERO HOUR INTELLIGENCE · LABOR MARKET BRIEF
Entry-Level & Mid-Career Hiring: Flows & Trajectory
Current state of entry-level and mid-level hiring, three-year comparison of jobs offered
(2023 vs. today), and trajectory through 2027–2028. Sourced from BLS JOLTS (June 2026 release)
and Indeed Hiring Lab's July 2026 seniority-tilt analysis.
-21%
Total U.S. job openings, Jun 2023 → May 2026 (JOLTS)
-35%
Entry-level postings, all sectors, since early 2023
-67%
Entry-level tech postings (junior SWE/data), since 2023
+15%
Senior-level postings, May 2025 → May 2026 YoY
TOTAL U.S. JOB OPENINGS · TRAJECTORY 2022–2028
BLS JOLTS, seasonally adjusted, total nonfarm. Solid = actuals (2022–2026). Dashed = 2027–2028
projection anchored to Indeed's published 2026 consensus range (6.8–7.4M by year-end), extended forward
at a similar cooling rate — illustrative, not a BLS forecast.
ENTRY-LEVEL POSTINGS INDEX (JAN 2023 = 100)
All-sector entry-level postings vs. tech-specific junior roles (software dev, data analysis).
Dashed segment (2027–2028) is a straight-line extension of the 2023–2026 rate of decline —
note the tech line approaches a floor near zero, which more likely signals a plateau than literal elimination.
MID-LEVEL SQUEEZE: TECH POSTING SHARE BY SENIORITY, 2019→2025
Percentage-point change in each tier's share of tech job postings, 2019 to 2025 (Indeed Hiring Lab).
Mid-level is the layer being displaced — its share fell nearly 8 points, while senior-level share grew
roughly 9 points over the same period. In software development specifically, senior-level roles were
69.3% of all postings in Q1 2026.
JOBS OFFERED: 3 YEARS AGO VS. TODAY
Direct comparison of the two clean year-over-year metrics available: total JOLTS openings
and the entry-level posting index, June/early 2023 vs. May/mid-2026.
MID-LEVEL / EXPERIENCED CYBERSECURITY & TECH ROLES — 2026 SALARY BANDS
Robert Half 2026 Salary Guide, national ranges. Relevant given the roles remaining in
active demand even as headline entry-level and mid-level tech postings cool.
ANALYST READ
- Entry-level is in structural decline, not a cyclical dip. All-sector entry-level postings are down 35% since early 2023; the tech-specific junior tier (software dev, data analysis) is down 67% over the same window, with the 15 largest tech employers cutting entry-level hiring 25% in 2023–24 alone. Recent-grad unemployment sits at 5.6–5.8%, well above the 4.2% national rate.
- Mid-level is now getting squeezed too — especially in tech. Indeed's July 2026 analysis shows tech mid-level posting share fell 7.7 percentage points from 2019 to 2025, while senior-level share rose about 9 points over the same period. That shift accelerated sharply in the past year: senior-level postings surged 15% between May 2025 and May 2026, while entry- and mid-level postings saw only slight upticks.
- Experienced workers are moving down-market to compete. In May 2026, roughly half of all applications from job seekers with 10+ years of experience went to entry-level roles, and 62% of applications from workers with 6–9 years went to entry-level postings — compressing the pool that new grads and true junior candidates are competing against.
- Trajectory: continued cooling through 2027, tentative stabilization in 2028. Indeed's own 2026 consensus scenario puts year-end openings at 6.8–7.4M, describing a "low-hire, low-fire" equilibrium rather than a further collapse. Extending that pattern, 2027 likely holds near flat-to-slightly-down, with 2028 as the more plausible floor — assuming no material AI-adoption or macro shock resets the baseline.
- The bright spot: specialized mid/senior technical and security roles. Cybersecurity engineer, AI/ML engineer, and data engineer roles remain in the highest-demand tier per Robert Half's 2026 guide, with mid-level cybersecurity compensation around $144K nationally — consistent with the "critical skills gap" framing employers keep citing even inside an otherwise cooling market.